Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | GCU -800 UTA +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GCU +14 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | GCU -11.3 (+2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.1 (+1.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -10.7 (+3.3) | 148.9 (+7.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -11.2 (+2.8) | 150.0 (+6.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -10.4 (+3.6) | 150.4 (+5.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -10.8 (+3.2) | 149.2 (+6.8) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2025 | GCU 98 – 75 UTA |
| Feb 15, 2025 | GCU 82 – 75 UTA |
| Mar 17, 2024 | GCU 89 – 74 UTA |
| Jan 27, 2024 | GCU 67 – 61 UTA |
| Dec 3, 2023 | GCU 76 – 69 UTA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GCU | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 13-3 | 6-10 |
| Home | 16-1 | 9-4 |
| Away | 5-4 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.6 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.0 | 75.7 |
| Massey | 4.9 (#96) | -3.2 (#221) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.06 (#87) | -0.71 (#235) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.01 (#102) | -0.80 (#231) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#100) | 0.467 (#246) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GCU | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 32.3% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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