Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | CCU +170 TROY -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +7 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | TROY -1.4 (-5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.5 (-24.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -1.4 (-5.6) | 156.2 (-19.2) | 39% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -4.4 (-2.6) | 153.8 (-16.8) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -1.9 (-5.1) | 153.0 (-16.0) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -1.7 (-5.3) | 154.2 (-17.2) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2025 | TROY 83 – 66 CCU |
| Feb 25, 2023 | TROY 95 – 74 CCU |
| Feb 19, 2022 | CCU 73 – 63 TROY |
| Jan 7, 2022 | TROY 69 – 59 CCU |
| Mar 7, 2021 | CCU 86 – 68 TROY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CCU | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 13-5 |
| Home | 7-11 | 15-2 |
| Away | 1-9 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.4 | 72.6 |
| Massey | -9.3 (#321) | -3.5 (#235) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.05 (#350) | -1.93 (#321) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.12 (#349) | -1.68 (#280) |
| RPI | 0.326 (#362) | 0.424 (#297) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CCU | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 37.4% |
| REB / G | 40.8 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 13.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 35.2% | 35.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 31.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.3% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 64.3% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 30.1% |
Game Analysis
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