Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | TROY -2500 CCU +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +17 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | TROY -16.4 (+0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.6 (+18.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -12.0 (+5.0) | 132.7 (+16.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -13.5 (+3.5) | 131.9 (+17.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -11.6 (+5.4) | 132.9 (+16.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -11.9 (+5.1) | 132.4 (+16.6) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 30, 2023 | TROY 72 – 65 CCU |
| Feb 25, 2023 | TROY 95 – 74 CCU |
| Feb 19, 2022 | CCU 73 – 63 TROY |
| Jan 7, 2022 | TROY 69 – 59 CCU |
| Mar 7, 2021 | CCU 86 – 68 TROY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | CCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 3-15 |
| Home | 11-4 | 6-8 |
| Away | 9-6 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 66.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 72.2 |
| Massey | 3.3 (#110) | -10.0 (#324) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.26 (#150) | -1.85 (#326) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.44 (#138) | -2.29 (#323) |
| RPI | 0.530 (#121) | 0.396 (#342) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | CCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 39.2% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 10.7% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 27.5% |
Game Analysis
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