Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | TROY -450 CCU +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +21 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | TROY -12.7 (+8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.4 (+24.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -10.6 (+10.4) | 146.8 (+22.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -9.0 (+12.0) | 146.4 (+22.6) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -10.9 (+10.1) | 146.0 (+23.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -11.1 (+9.9) | 147.0 (+22.0) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2025 | TROY 83 – 66 CCU |
| Dec 30, 2023 | TROY 72 – 65 CCU |
| Feb 19, 2022 | CCU 73 – 63 TROY |
| Jan 7, 2022 | TROY 69 – 59 CCU |
| Mar 7, 2021 | CCU 86 – 68 TROY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | CCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 5-13 |
| Home | 11-3 | 8-8 |
| Away | 7-8 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 77.3 |
| Massey | 2.6 (#130) | -6.5 (#287) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.31 (#145) | -1.06 (#272) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.48 (#138) | -1.56 (#289) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#108) | 0.447 (#284) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | CCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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