Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -1.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Under |
| Money | TROY -115 CCU -105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +10 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | CCU -0.2 (+10.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.6 (-8.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -1.9 (+8.1) | 138.7 (-10.7) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CCU -0.1 (+10.1) | 138.7 (-10.7) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -2.0 (+8.0) | 137.6 (-9.6) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -1.5 (+8.5) | 138.3 (-10.3) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2025 | TROY 83 – 66 CCU |
| Dec 30, 2023 | TROY 72 – 65 CCU |
| Feb 25, 2023 | TROY 95 – 74 CCU |
| Feb 19, 2022 | CCU 73 – 63 TROY |
| Mar 7, 2021 | CCU 86 – 68 TROY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | CCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 8-8 |
| Home | 10-3 | 13-7 |
| Away | 8-6 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.1 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 66.4 |
| Massey | -2.2 (#216) | 2.1 (#131) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.24 (#154) | -0.10 (#185) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.52 (#139) | 0.07 (#168) |
| RPI | 0.474 (#222) | 0.487 (#196) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | CCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 40.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 34.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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