Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -8.0 Push |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | USC -350 CAL +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +8 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | USC -11.7 (-3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.5 (-3.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USC -10.2 (-2.2) | 156.4 (-0.4) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USC -12.2 (-4.2) | 155.9 (+0.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -10.4 (-2.4) | 153.9 (+2.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USC -10.6 (-2.6) | 154.4 (+1.6) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 18, 2024 | CAL 71 – 66 USC |
| Feb 8, 2024 | CAL 83 – 77 USC |
| Feb 17, 2023 | USC 97 – 60 CAL |
| Dec 1, 2022 | USC 66 – 51 CAL |
| Jan 30, 2022 | USC 79 – 72 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USC | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 9-11 |
| Home | 9-6 | 10-6 |
| Away | 3-9 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-5 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 77.0 |
| Massey | 6.0 (#85) | -1.2 (#186) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#132) | -1.20 (#281) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.88 (#123) | -0.98 (#254) |
| RPI | 0.530 (#126) | 0.460 (#249) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USC | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 28.1% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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