Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | USC -320 CAL +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAL +5 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | USC -7.0 (-12.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.6 (-20.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USC -7.2 (-12.2) | 154.5 (-17.5) | 71% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USC -4.8 (-9.8) | 147.4 (-10.4) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -6.9 (-11.9) | 149.4 (-12.4) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USC -8.2 (-13.2) | 152.9 (-15.9) | 76% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2024 | CAL 83 – 77 USC |
| Jan 4, 2024 | USC 82 – 74 CAL |
| Feb 17, 2023 | USC 97 – 60 CAL |
| Dec 1, 2022 | USC 66 – 51 CAL |
| Jan 30, 2022 | USC 79 – 72 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USC | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-18 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 6-14 |
| Home | 12-7 | 11-6 |
| Away | 3-7 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.7 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 76.8 |
| Massey | 4.2 (#102) | 4.0 (#104) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.59 (#68) | 0.87 (#111) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.45 (#59) | 1.42 (#101) |
| RPI | 0.597 (#84) | 0.697 (#17) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USC | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.7% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 28.0 | 40.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 2.52 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 11.5% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 23.2% | 33.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 37.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.6% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 37.5% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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