Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | USC -2000 CAL +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +37 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | USC -17.0 (+20.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.7 (+27.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USC -14.7 (+22.3) | 132.3 (+24.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USC -14.3 (+22.7) | 129.6 (+27.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -13.4 (+23.6) | 132.5 (+24.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USC -13.8 (+23.2) | 132.2 (+24.8) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 18, 2024 | CAL 71 – 66 USC |
| Feb 8, 2024 | CAL 83 – 77 USC |
| Jan 4, 2024 | USC 82 – 74 CAL |
| Dec 1, 2022 | USC 66 – 51 CAL |
| Jan 30, 2022 | USC 79 – 72 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USC | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 3-29 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 2-18 |
| Home | 15-2 | 3-14 |
| Away | 5-5 | 0-12 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L16 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 58.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 70.1 |
| Massey | 9.0 (#56) | -4.3 (#243) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.62 (#53) | -1.83 (#328) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.00 (#56) | -1.79 (#307) |
| RPI | 0.579 (#46) | 0.417 (#323) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USC | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 45.4% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.4% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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