Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +7 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | USC -13.0 (-6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.7 (+21.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USC -11.7 (-4.7) | 134.3 (+16.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USC -13.3 (-6.3) | 133.9 (+17.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -11.5 (-4.5) | 134.2 (+16.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USC -11.4 (-4.4) | 134.7 (+16.3) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 18, 2024 | CAL 71 – 66 USC |
| Feb 8, 2024 | CAL 83 – 77 USC |
| Jan 4, 2024 | USC 82 – 74 CAL |
| Feb 17, 2023 | USC 97 – 60 CAL |
| Dec 1, 2022 | USC 66 – 51 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USC | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 5-15 |
| Home | 13-3 | 10-8 |
| Away | 9-3 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 63.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.0 | 66.1 |
| Massey | 12.2 (#24) | 2.4 (#126) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.43 (#31) | 0.22 (#159) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.84 (#35) | 0.44 (#140) |
| RPI | 0.589 (#44) | 0.475 (#209) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USC | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 41.5 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 24.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 17.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.0% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 76.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.9% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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