Betting Lines
| Spread | CAL -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | CAL -167 USC +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAL +6 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | CAL -0.8 (+5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.3 (+6.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CAL -1.5 (+4.5) | 149.3 (+10.7) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CAL -0.3 (+5.7) | 149.0 (+11.0) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CAL -2.0 (+4.0) | 147.7 (+12.3) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CAL -1.6 (+4.4) | 147.9 (+12.1) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 18, 2024 | CAL 71 – 66 USC |
| Jan 4, 2024 | USC 82 – 74 CAL |
| Feb 17, 2023 | USC 97 – 60 CAL |
| Dec 1, 2022 | USC 66 – 51 CAL |
| Jan 30, 2022 | USC 79 – 72 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 8-12 |
| Home | 10-6 | 9-6 |
| Away | 3-8 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 74.3 |
| Massey | 3.6 (#116) | 6.2 (#92) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.22 (#152) | 0.39 (#142) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.72 (#127) | 0.73 (#125) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#174) | 0.516 (#145) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | USC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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