Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Under |
| Money | CAL +300 USC -300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +15 | 117 | Lost |
| Massey | USC -2.0 (-13.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.7 (-11.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USC -3.6 (-11.4) | 129.6 (-12.6) | 36% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USC -4.7 (-10.3) | 127.3 (-10.3) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -3.6 (-11.4) | 130.4 (-13.4) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USC -4.4 (-10.6) | 130.1 (-13.1) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 18, 2024 | CAL 71 – 66 USC |
| Feb 8, 2024 | CAL 83 – 77 USC |
| Jan 4, 2024 | USC 82 – 74 CAL |
| Feb 17, 2023 | USC 97 – 60 CAL |
| Jan 30, 2022 | USC 79 – 72 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-29 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 14-6 |
| Home | 3-14 | 15-2 |
| Away | 0-12 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L16 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 58.3 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 67.4 |
| Massey | -6.4 (#292) | 1.9 (#146) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.34 (#349) | -0.01 (#184) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.53 (#347) | 0.15 (#171) |
| RPI | 0.393 (#312) | 0.497 (#175) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | USC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 29.2% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.60 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.1% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 24.9% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 30.6% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 44.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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