I'm not a coward; I've just never been tested. "The Impression That I Get" - The Mighty Mighty Bosstones
Atlantic Coast Conference · Conte Forum · January 20, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread UNC -6.5 Away covered
O/U 155.5 Under
Money BC +225 / UNC -300
Model Predictions
Spread Total BC win
Actual UNC +10 142 Lost
Massey UNC -7.7 (-2.3) — —
Massey Totals — 158.4 (-16.4) —
Bradley-Terry — — 25% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 16% ✓
Baseline Plus ML UNC -6.2 (-3.8) 153.1 (-11.1) 25% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ UNC -7.0 (-3.0) 151.4 (-9.4) 24% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML UNC -6.9 (-3.1) 149.7 (-7.7) 26% ✓
Baseline ML UNC -6.2 (-3.8) 148.7 (-6.7) 25% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 25, 2025 UNC 102 – 96 BC
Mar 9, 2023 UNC 85 – 61 BC
Jan 18, 2023 UNC 72 – 64 BC
Jan 27, 2022 UNC 58 – 47 BC
Jan 2, 2022 UNC 91 – 65 BC

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings BC UNC
Overall 20-16 29-8
Conference 8-12 17-3
Home 10-6 14-1
Away 7-7 8-2
Neutral 3-3 7-5
Last 5 2-3 5-0
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 74.1 81.9
Avg Pts Against 71.9 70.5
Massey 6.7 (#88) 18.2 (#8)
Bradley-Terry 1.32 (#83) 3.11 (#7)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.70 (#81) 4.14 (#4)
RPI 0.562 (#85) 0.644 (#7)
Shooting & Four Factors BC UNC
FG% 46.4% 45.5%
3PT% 36.4% 35.9%
REB / G 35.2 41.1
OREB / G 9.5 12.2
AST / TO 1.45 1.37
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.9% 51.8%
TOV% 13.9% 14.4%
ORB% 26.8% 33.2%
FT Rate 20.5% 30.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.6% 45.6%
Opp TOV% 17.5% 16.7%
DRB% 72.8% 74.5%
Opp FT Rate 21.3% 19.6%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.