Hop in my Chrysler, it's as big as a whale and it's about to set sail. "Love Shack" - The B-52's
Atlantic Coast Conference · Dean E. Smith Center · January 25, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread UNC -19.5 Away covered
O/U 149.5 Over
Money UNC -6000 / BC +1800
Model Predictions
Spread Total UNC win
Actual UNC +6 198 Won
Massey UNC -21.6 (-15.6) — —
Massey Totals — 155.2 (+42.8) —
Bradley-Terry — — 96% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 99% ✓
Baseline Plus ML UNC -17.4 (-11.4) 148.4 (+49.6) 90% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ UNC -15.5 (-9.5) 148.9 (+49.1) 90% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML UNC -16.3 (-10.3) 146.6 (+51.4) 90% ✓
Baseline ML UNC -18.8 (-12.8) 146.4 (+51.6) 90% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 20, 2024 UNC 76 – 66 BC
Mar 9, 2023 UNC 85 – 61 BC
Jan 18, 2023 UNC 72 – 64 BC
Jan 27, 2022 UNC 58 – 47 BC
Jan 2, 2022 UNC 91 – 65 BC

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UNC BC
Overall 23-14 12-19
Conference 13-7 4-16
Home 12-3 9-8
Away 6-6 0-10
Neutral 5-5 3-1
Last 5 3-2 0-5
Streak L1 L4
Avg Pts For 80.7 70.4
Avg Pts Against 74.7 75.8
Massey 14.0 (#34) -4.2 (#232)
Bradley-Terry 2.10 (#44) -0.36 (#212)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.88 (#37) -0.61 (#216)
RPI 0.619 (#24) 0.465 (#236)
Shooting & Four Factors UNC BC
FG% 46.6% 43.4%
3PT% 32.1% 34.2%
REB / G 37.9 34.9
OREB / G 9.4 10.9
AST / TO 1.30 0.90
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.5% 48.7%
TOV% 14.9% 18.1%
ORB% 27.2% 31.5%
FT Rate 26.8% 24.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.7% 52.6%
Opp TOV% 15.6% 15.4%
DRB% 71.9% 72.5%
Opp FT Rate 22.2% 26.7%

Game Analysis

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