I'm not a coward; I've just never been tested. "The Impression That I Get" - The Mighty Mighty Bosstones
Atlantic Coast Conference · Dean E. Smith Center · January 27, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread UNC -13.5 Away covered
O/U 145.5 Under
Money UNC -1100 / BC +700
Model Predictions
Spread Total UNC win
Actual UNC +11 105 Won
Massey UNC -12.5 (-1.5) — —
Massey Totals — 146.9 (-41.9) —
Bradley-Terry — — 94% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 95% ✓
Baseline Plus ML UNC -10.9 (+0.1) 145.6 (-40.6) 84% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ UNC -12.9 (-1.9) 143.2 (-38.2) 87% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML UNC -10.9 (+0.1) 146.4 (-41.4) 87% ✓
Baseline ML UNC -11.2 (-0.2) 145.4 (-40.4) 86% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 25, 2025 UNC 102 – 96 BC
Jan 20, 2024 UNC 76 – 66 BC
Mar 9, 2023 UNC 85 – 61 BC
Jan 18, 2023 UNC 72 – 64 BC
Jan 2, 2022 UNC 91 – 65 BC

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UNC BC
Overall 29-10 13-20
Conference 15-5 6-14
Home 15-2 9-7
Away 8-3 2-10
Neutral 6-5 2-3
Last 5 3-2 2-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 77.9 66.9
Avg Pts Against 71.3 68.1
Massey 9.7 (#49) 0.6 (#152)
Bradley-Terry 1.76 (#59) -0.37 (#205)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.20 (#57) -0.15 (#186)
RPI 0.602 (#35) 0.454 (#255)
Shooting & Four Factors UNC BC
FG% 45.7% 41.4%
3PT% 37.1% 32.4%
REB / G 40.8 35.9
OREB / G 10.9 11.9
AST / TO 1.21 1.01
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.2% 46.3%
TOV% 17.0% 17.4%
ORB% 31.0% 32.1%
FT Rate 22.9% 23.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.2% 52.5%
Opp TOV% 13.1% 18.8%
DRB% 80.6% 77.3%
Opp FT Rate 14.9% 21.3%

Game Analysis

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