Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | UNC -1200 BC +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +8 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -18.6 (-10.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.6 (-9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -15.5 (-7.5) | 146.7 (-10.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -15.6 (-7.6) | 146.2 (-10.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -15.2 (-7.2) | 146.8 (-10.8) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -15.1 (-7.1) | 146.5 (-10.5) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 25, 2025 | UNC 102 – 96 BC |
| Jan 20, 2024 | UNC 76 – 66 BC |
| Mar 9, 2023 | UNC 85 – 61 BC |
| Jan 27, 2022 | UNC 58 – 47 BC |
| Jan 2, 2022 | UNC 91 – 65 BC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | BC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 9-11 |
| Home | 12-3 | 9-7 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 66.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 70.2 |
| Massey | 11.6 (#30) | -3.2 (#233) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.04 (#35) | -0.13 (#190) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.71 (#29) | -0.04 (#184) |
| RPI | 0.611 (#22) | 0.479 (#216) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | BC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 28.0% |
| REB / G | 39.6 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 30.2% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.8% | 18.4% |
Game Analysis
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