Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -11.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Over |
| Money | UNC -550 BC +425 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +24 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -10.7 (+13.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.6 (+5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -7.7 (+16.3) | 138.6 (+7.4) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -9.2 (+14.8) | 138.2 (+7.8) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -8.0 (+16.0) | 137.9 (+8.1) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -7.9 (+16.1) | 137.1 (+8.9) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 25, 2025 | UNC 102 – 96 BC |
| Jan 20, 2024 | UNC 76 – 66 BC |
| Jan 18, 2023 | UNC 72 – 64 BC |
| Jan 27, 2022 | UNC 58 – 47 BC |
| Jan 2, 2022 | UNC 91 – 65 BC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | BC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 9-11 |
| Home | 12-3 | 9-7 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 66.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 70.2 |
| Massey | 10.3 (#45) | -0.4 (#176) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.74 (#49) | 0.56 (#124) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.34 (#44) | 0.70 (#121) |
| RPI | 0.574 (#53) | 0.508 (#162) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | BC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 39.9 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 28.1% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 76.6% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.