Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -8.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Over |
| Money | BC +270 UNC -340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +26 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | UNC -2.1 (-23.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.5 (+14.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -3.4 (-22.6) | 139.2 (+16.8) | 37% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -2.5 (-23.5) | 139.0 (+17.0) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -2.6 (-23.4) | 140.4 (+15.6) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -2.0 (-24.0) | 141.4 (+14.6) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 25, 2025 | UNC 102 – 96 BC |
| Jan 20, 2024 | UNC 76 – 66 BC |
| Mar 9, 2023 | UNC 85 – 61 BC |
| Jan 18, 2023 | UNC 72 – 64 BC |
| Jan 27, 2022 | UNC 58 – 47 BC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BC | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 29-10 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 15-5 |
| Home | 9-7 | 15-2 |
| Away | 2-10 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 6-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.9 | 77.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 2.6 (#123) | 9.0 (#53) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.43 (#218) | 1.88 (#51) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.12 (#184) | 2.54 (#47) |
| RPI | 0.443 (#269) | 0.602 (#34) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BC | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 39.2% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 39.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 14.1% |
| DRB% | 79.3% | 78.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 13.1% |
Game Analysis
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