Betting Lines
| Spread | DRKE -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | MOST +210 DRKE -275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MOST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MOST +3 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | DRKE -7.1 (+10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.3 (+20.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DRKE -7.2 (+10.2) | 142.3 (+20.7) | 26% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DRKE -7.3 (+10.3) | 139.8 (+23.2) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DRKE -7.8 (+10.8) | 141.9 (+21.1) | 24% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DRKE -8.2 (+11.2) | 142.7 (+20.3) | 24% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 2, 2025 | DRKE 68 – 60 MOST |
| Jan 25, 2025 | DRKE 69 – 62 MOST |
| Dec 2, 2023 | DRKE 74 – 57 MOST |
| Jan 19, 2023 | MOST 65 – 62 DRKE |
| Jan 1, 2023 | MOST 52 – 49 DRKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MOST | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 28-7 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 16-4 |
| Home | 9-5 | 16-0 |
| Away | 4-10 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 79.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 0.1 (#161) | 11.0 (#45) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.02 (#176) | 2.05 (#39) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.11 (#165) | 2.49 (#39) |
| RPI | 0.497 (#176) | 0.609 (#25) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MOST | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 49.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 56.0% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 13.9% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.6% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 78.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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