Betting Lines
| Spread | CLEM -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Over |
| Money | CLEM -200 UVA +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CLEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +1 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | CLEM -7.3 (-8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.3 (+3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CLEM -5.5 (-6.5) | 131.3 (-0.3) | 62% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CLEM -5.8 (-6.8) | 129.9 (+1.1) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CLEM -5.7 (-6.7) | 132.1 (-1.1) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CLEM -5.4 (-6.4) | 132.3 (-1.3) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2025 | CLEM 71 – 58 UVA |
| Mar 11, 2023 | UVA 76 – 56 CLEM |
| Mar 1, 2023 | UVA 64 – 57 CLEM |
| Jan 5, 2022 | UVA 75 – 65 CLEM |
| Dec 23, 2021 | CLEM 67 – 50 UVA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CLEM | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 13-7 |
| Home | 12-4 | 15-2 |
| Away | 6-6 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.4 | 62.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 59.8 |
| Massey | 12.3 (#36) | 8.6 (#70) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.32 (#24) | 1.94 (#42) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.00 (#19) | 2.09 (#58) |
| RPI | 0.621 (#18) | 0.593 (#40) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CLEM | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.49 | 1.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 17.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 46.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.2% | 22.2% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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