Betting Lines
| Spread | CLEM -4.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 121.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CLEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +10 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | CLEM -8.3 (-18.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.2 (+16.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CLEM -2.9 (-12.9) | 131.0 (+9.0) | 50% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CLEM -6.4 (-16.4) | 130.3 (+9.7) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CLEM -6.0 (-16.0) | 131.6 (+8.4) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CLEM -5.0 (-15.0) | 131.8 (+8.2) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2025 | CLEM 71 – 58 UVA |
| Feb 3, 2024 | UVA 66 – 65 CLEM |
| Mar 11, 2023 | UVA 76 – 56 CLEM |
| Mar 1, 2023 | UVA 64 – 57 CLEM |
| Dec 23, 2021 | CLEM 67 – 50 UVA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CLEM | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 12-8 |
| Home | 11-5 | 11-7 |
| Away | 3-8 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 60.1 |
| Massey | 9.4 (#48) | 5.4 (#92) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.42 (#67) | 0.73 (#112) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.01 (#64) | 1.22 (#94) |
| RPI | 0.588 (#42) | 0.524 (#122) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CLEM | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 41.0% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 75.9% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 15.8% |
Game Analysis
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