Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | UVA -300 CLEM +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +7 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -6.1 (+0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.8 (-8.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -5.5 (+1.5) | 130.9 (-9.9) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -5.9 (+1.1) | 123.5 (-2.5) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -5.3 (+1.7) | 130.9 (-9.9) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -5.2 (+1.8) | 132.7 (-11.7) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2025 | CLEM 71 – 58 UVA |
| Feb 3, 2024 | UVA 66 – 65 CLEM |
| Mar 11, 2023 | UVA 76 – 56 CLEM |
| Jan 5, 2022 | UVA 75 – 65 CLEM |
| Dec 23, 2021 | CLEM 67 – 50 UVA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | CLEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 14-6 |
| Home | 15-1 | 15-2 |
| Away | 6-5 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.5 | 67.9 |
| Massey | 10.8 (#37) | 8.2 (#72) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.54 (#12) | 1.68 (#49) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.09 (#15) | 1.99 (#57) |
| RPI | 0.615 (#11) | 0.564 (#64) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | CLEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.82 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 54.5% |
| TOV% | 13.8% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 23.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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