Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Over |
| Money | UVA -155 CLEM +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +20 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -1.4 (+18.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.2 (+4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -1.9 (+18.1) | 126.4 (+5.6) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -1.8 (+18.2) | 124.8 (+7.2) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -1.1 (+18.9) | 129.5 (+2.5) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -1.6 (+18.4) | 130.4 (+1.6) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2025 | CLEM 71 – 58 UVA |
| Feb 3, 2024 | UVA 66 – 65 CLEM |
| Mar 1, 2023 | UVA 64 – 57 CLEM |
| Jan 5, 2022 | UVA 75 – 65 CLEM |
| Dec 23, 2021 | CLEM 67 – 50 UVA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | CLEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 14-6 |
| Home | 15-1 | 15-2 |
| Away | 6-5 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.5 | 67.9 |
| Massey | 10.8 (#36) | 9.4 (#57) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.63 (#11) | 1.78 (#47) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.19 (#13) | 2.17 (#50) |
| RPI | 0.618 (#9) | 0.563 (#63) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | CLEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.87 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 23.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 75.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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