Betting Lines
| Spread | MOST -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | MOST -250 BEL +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MOST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MOST +7 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | MOST -5.2 (+1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.1 (+14.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MOST -4.6 (+2.4) | 148.5 (+18.5) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MOST -3.4 (+3.6) | 149.9 (+17.1) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MOST -4.7 (+2.3) | 152.1 (+14.9) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MOST -4.4 (+2.6) | 150.4 (+16.6) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2025 | BEL 74 – 65 MOST |
| Feb 8, 2025 | BEL 85 – 68 MOST |
| Feb 24, 2024 | BEL 93 – 78 MOST |
| Feb 9, 2023 | MOST 61 – 59 BEL |
| Jan 7, 2023 | BEL 74 – 61 MOST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MOST | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 12-8 |
| Home | 9-5 | 12-2 |
| Away | 4-10 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 77.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 76.1 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#143) | -0.1 (#165) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.60 (#124) | 0.55 (#129) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.59 (#140) | 0.68 (#127) |
| RPI | 0.526 (#130) | 0.531 (#123) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MOST | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 6.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 20.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.8% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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