Betting Lines
| Spread | BEL -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | BEL -350 MOST +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BEL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BEL +15 | 171 | Won |
| Massey | BEL -4.2 (+10.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.0 (+18.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BEL -4.6 (+10.4) | 149.4 (+21.6) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BEL -2.7 (+12.3) | 150.3 (+20.7) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BEL -4.5 (+10.5) | 151.7 (+19.3) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BEL -4.2 (+10.8) | 150.7 (+20.3) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2025 | BEL 74 – 65 MOST |
| Feb 8, 2025 | BEL 85 – 68 MOST |
| Feb 3, 2024 | MOST 87 – 80 BEL |
| Feb 9, 2023 | MOST 61 – 59 BEL |
| Jan 7, 2023 | BEL 74 – 61 MOST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BEL | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 8-12 |
| Home | 12-2 | 9-5 |
| Away | 6-9 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.4 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#141) | 0.7 (#153) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.69 (#119) | 0.35 (#144) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.87 (#120) | 0.37 (#147) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#99) | 0.503 (#172) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BEL | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 38.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.1 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 21.7% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 13.0% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
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