Betting Lines
| Spread | BEL -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | BEL -360 MOST +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BEL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BEL +17 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | BEL -8.6 (+8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.1 (-3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BEL -7.4 (+9.6) | 149.3 (+3.7) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BEL -7.9 (+9.1) | 147.4 (+5.6) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BEL -7.7 (+9.3) | 148.6 (+4.4) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BEL -6.8 (+10.2) | 151.2 (+1.8) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2025 | BEL 74 – 65 MOST |
| Feb 24, 2024 | BEL 93 – 78 MOST |
| Feb 3, 2024 | MOST 87 – 80 BEL |
| Feb 9, 2023 | MOST 61 – 59 BEL |
| Jan 7, 2023 | BEL 74 – 61 MOST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BEL | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 2-18 |
| Home | 11-5 | 7-8 |
| Away | 9-4 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 1.7 (#135) | -3.7 (#226) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.99 (#89) | -1.08 (#267) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.91 (#104) | -0.97 (#236) |
| RPI | 0.553 (#79) | 0.438 (#286) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BEL | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.53 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.7% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 29.4% |
Game Analysis
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