Betting Lines
| Spread | MOST -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | MOST -138 BEL +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MOST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MOST +2 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | MOST -2.8 (-0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.2 (-18.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MOST -1.5 (+0.5) | 138.9 (-18.9) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MOST -2.5 (-0.5) | 137.1 (-17.1) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MOST -0.9 (+1.1) | 138.3 (-18.3) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MOST -1.3 (+0.7) | 140.4 (-20.4) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2025 | BEL 74 – 65 MOST |
| Feb 8, 2025 | BEL 85 – 68 MOST |
| Feb 24, 2024 | BEL 93 – 78 MOST |
| Feb 3, 2024 | MOST 87 – 80 BEL |
| Jan 7, 2023 | BEL 74 – 61 MOST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MOST | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 14-6 |
| Home | 10-4 | 12-2 |
| Away | 5-8 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.0 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.7 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#145) | 2.0 (#132) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.15 (#156) | 0.72 (#111) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.09 (#163) | 0.57 (#126) |
| RPI | 0.523 (#130) | 0.556 (#78) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MOST | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 39.4% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 25.7% |
| FT Rate | 17.9% | 17.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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