Betting Lines
| Spread | BEL -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | BEL -138 MOST +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BEL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BEL +13 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | BEL -0.7 (+12.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.3 (-3.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BEL -1.0 (+12.0) | 138.1 (-3.1) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BEL -1.1 (+11.9) | 135.6 (-0.6) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MOST -0.1 (+13.1) | 137.5 (-2.5) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BEL -0.6 (+12.4) | 139.1 (-4.1) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2025 | BEL 74 – 65 MOST |
| Feb 8, 2025 | BEL 85 – 68 MOST |
| Feb 24, 2024 | BEL 93 – 78 MOST |
| Feb 3, 2024 | MOST 87 – 80 BEL |
| Feb 9, 2023 | MOST 61 – 59 BEL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BEL | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 12-8 |
| Home | 12-2 | 10-4 |
| Away | 7-7 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.3 | 65.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 63.7 |
| Massey | 0.7 (#158) | 4.4 (#101) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#134) | 0.28 (#147) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.15 (#165) | 0.53 (#126) |
| RPI | 0.534 (#113) | 0.524 (#128) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BEL | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 40.1% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 23.9% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 15.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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