Betting Lines
| Spread | MOST -0.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | MOST +105 BEL -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MOST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BEL +9 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | BEL -1.1 (-7.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.8 (-13.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BEL -0.8 (-8.2) | 146.5 (-7.5) | 43% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BEL -0.0 (-9.0) | 145.0 (-6.0) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BEL -0.9 (-8.1) | 147.8 (-8.8) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BEL -0.6 (-8.4) | 147.9 (-8.9) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2025 | BEL 85 – 68 MOST |
| Feb 24, 2024 | BEL 93 – 78 MOST |
| Feb 3, 2024 | MOST 87 – 80 BEL |
| Feb 9, 2023 | MOST 61 – 59 BEL |
| Jan 7, 2023 | BEL 74 – 61 MOST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MOST | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 13-7 |
| Home | 7-8 | 11-5 |
| Away | 1-12 | 9-4 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.5 | 78.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 76.8 |
| Massey | -3.4 (#223) | 1.0 (#143) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.09 (#272) | 0.81 (#103) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.94 (#242) | 0.61 (#124) |
| RPI | 0.439 (#297) | 0.541 (#101) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MOST | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 38.8% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 55.4% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.3% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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