Betting Lines
| Spread | FSU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | LOU +188 FSU -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +9 | 193 | Won |
| Massey | FSU -6.8 (+15.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.0 (+43.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FSU -6.8 (+15.8) | 150.7 (+42.3) | 26% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FSU -6.1 (+15.1) | 148.9 (+44.1) | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FSU -6.9 (+15.9) | 146.5 (+46.5) | 24% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FSU -7.1 (+16.1) | 145.8 (+47.2) | 30% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2025 | LOU 89 – 81 FSU |
| Dec 21, 2024 | LOU 90 – 76 FSU |
| Feb 4, 2023 | FSU 81 – 78 LOU |
| Dec 10, 2022 | FSU 75 – 53 LOU |
| Jan 9, 2022 | FSU 79 – 70 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-24 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 10-10 |
| Home | 7-11 | 10-7 |
| Away | 1-10 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L8 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 76.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.1 | 76.3 |
| Massey | -2.2 (#199) | 8.0 (#72) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.97 (#270) | 1.43 (#71) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.01 (#257) | 1.90 (#66) |
| RPI | 0.449 (#270) | 0.572 (#64) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 29.0% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 28.7% |
Game Analysis
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