Betting Lines
| Spread | FSU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | LOU +170 FSU -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +3 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | FSU -3.7 (+0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.1 (+16.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FSU -2.8 (-0.2) | 143.4 (+15.6) | 36% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FSU -3.9 (+0.9) | 142.4 (+16.6) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FSU -2.7 (-0.3) | 142.4 (+16.6) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FSU -2.8 (-0.2) | 143.2 (+15.8) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2025 | LOU 89 – 81 FSU |
| Dec 21, 2024 | LOU 90 – 76 FSU |
| Feb 4, 2024 | LOU 101 – 92 FSU |
| Dec 10, 2022 | FSU 75 – 53 LOU |
| Jan 9, 2022 | FSU 79 – 70 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-28 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 7-13 |
| Home | 4-13 | 5-11 |
| Away | 0-11 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 0-5 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L5 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.9 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 76.2 |
| Massey | -8.6 (#316) | -1.4 (#199) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.98 (#339) | -0.39 (#215) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.67 (#295) | -0.34 (#198) |
| RPI | 0.420 (#320) | 0.485 (#205) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.55 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 23.8% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 25.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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