Betting Lines
| Spread | FSU -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +9 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | FSU -4.8 (+4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.9 (+14.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FSU -3.7 (+5.3) | 142.2 (+6.8) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FSU -3.6 (+5.4) | 141.0 (+8.0) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FSU -3.1 (+5.9) | 140.7 (+8.3) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FSU -2.8 (+6.2) | 142.7 (+6.3) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2025 | LOU 89 – 81 FSU |
| Dec 21, 2024 | LOU 90 – 76 FSU |
| Feb 4, 2024 | LOU 101 – 92 FSU |
| Feb 4, 2023 | FSU 81 – 78 LOU |
| Dec 10, 2022 | FSU 75 – 53 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 6-14 |
| Home | 11-4 | 8-8 |
| Away | 4-8 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.0 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 70.1 |
| Massey | 7.3 (#68) | 6.4 (#85) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.92 (#101) | 1.53 (#62) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.36 (#98) | 1.80 (#70) |
| RPI | 0.564 (#73) | 0.597 (#41) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 39.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 45.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.8% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 76.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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