Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | LOU -1600 FSU +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +8 | 170 | Won |
| Massey | LOU -12.8 (-4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.2 (+21.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -13.4 (-5.4) | 147.7 (+22.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -10.4 (-2.4) | 150.0 (+20.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -12.8 (-4.8) | 146.6 (+23.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -12.1 (-4.1) | 146.8 (+23.2) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2024 | LOU 90 – 76 FSU |
| Feb 4, 2024 | LOU 101 – 92 FSU |
| Feb 4, 2023 | FSU 81 – 78 LOU |
| Dec 10, 2022 | FSU 75 – 53 LOU |
| Jan 9, 2022 | FSU 79 – 70 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 8-12 |
| Home | 14-3 | 11-5 |
| Away | 9-2 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.5 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 16.5 (#24) | 6.9 (#83) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.80 (#19) | 0.95 (#93) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.48 (#25) | 1.18 (#92) |
| RPI | 0.617 (#22) | 0.531 (#117) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 28.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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