Betting Lines
| Spread | FSU -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | FSU -500 LOU +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +22 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | FSU -14.8 (+7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.1 (-5.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FSU -11.2 (+10.8) | 136.1 (-8.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FSU -10.5 (+11.5) | 133.4 (-5.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FSU -10.0 (+12.0) | 133.8 (-5.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FSU -10.0 (+12.0) | 133.8 (-5.8) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2025 | LOU 89 – 81 FSU |
| Dec 21, 2024 | LOU 90 – 76 FSU |
| Feb 4, 2024 | LOU 101 – 92 FSU |
| Feb 4, 2023 | FSU 81 – 78 LOU |
| Jan 9, 2022 | FSU 79 – 70 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 4-28 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 2-18 |
| Home | 5-11 | 4-13 |
| Away | 4-7 | 0-11 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L3 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 63.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.2 | 75.8 |
| Massey | -4.5 (#253) | -14.1 (#355) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.42 (#334) | -4.31 (#362) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.53 (#314) | -5.29 (#355) |
| RPI | 0.425 (#287) | 0.417 (#295) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 37.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 27.2% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.5% | 42.3% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 24.6% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 23.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 54.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 63.2% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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