Betting Lines
| Spread | FSU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | FSU -110 LOU -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +14 | 166 | Lost |
| Massey | FSU -1.7 (-15.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.0 (+18.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FSU -2.3 (-16.3) | 147.3 (+18.7) | 62% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FSU -3.0 (-17.0) | 149.9 (+16.1) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FSU -3.2 (-17.2) | 146.1 (+19.9) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FSU -3.4 (-17.4) | 146.7 (+19.3) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2025 | LOU 89 – 81 FSU |
| Feb 4, 2024 | LOU 101 – 92 FSU |
| Feb 4, 2023 | FSU 81 – 78 LOU |
| Dec 10, 2022 | FSU 75 – 53 LOU |
| Jan 9, 2022 | FSU 79 – 70 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 18-2 |
| Home | 11-5 | 14-3 |
| Away | 2-9 | 9-2 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 78.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 69.5 |
| Massey | 8.7 (#67) | 11.2 (#48) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.64 (#64) | 1.76 (#58) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.04 (#71) | 2.97 (#45) |
| RPI | 0.587 (#48) | 0.597 (#40) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 28.0% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 34.7% |
| FT Rate | 32.0% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.1% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.7% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.0% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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