Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | MUR -188 MOST +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MUR +10 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | MUR -4.1 (+5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.3 (+15.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -2.5 (+7.5) | 138.0 (+16.0) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -1.8 (+8.2) | 137.1 (+16.9) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -3.0 (+7.0) | 139.5 (+14.5) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -2.8 (+7.2) | 138.6 (+15.4) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2025 | MOST 77 – 56 MUR |
| Mar 7, 2024 | MOST 60 – 35 MUR |
| Jan 11, 2024 | MUR 77 – 53 MOST |
| Feb 22, 2023 | MOST 84 – 69 MUR |
| Jan 28, 2023 | MUR 74 – 71 MOST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MUR | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 8-12 |
| Home | 8-8 | 9-5 |
| Away | 4-9 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.1 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#135) | 1.6 (#140) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.31 (#202) | 0.52 (#129) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.15 (#161) | 0.56 (#136) |
| RPI | 0.491 (#186) | 0.510 (#154) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MUR | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 39.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 14.0% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 13.3% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 75.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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