Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | MUR -115 MOST -111 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MUR +3 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | MUR -1.0 (+2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.8 (+13.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -1.4 (+1.6) | 135.9 (+9.1) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -1.4 (+1.6) | 130.5 (+14.5) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -1.0 (+2.0) | 132.8 (+12.2) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -0.6 (+2.4) | 136.3 (+8.7) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2025 | MOST 77 – 56 MUR |
| Mar 7, 2024 | MOST 60 – 35 MUR |
| Feb 15, 2024 | MUR 82 – 72 MOST |
| Jan 11, 2024 | MUR 77 – 53 MOST |
| Feb 22, 2023 | MOST 84 – 69 MUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MUR | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 12-8 |
| Home | 11-2 | 10-4 |
| Away | 3-11 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 65.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 63.7 |
| Massey | -0.5 (#177) | 1.9 (#136) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.08 (#168) | 0.23 (#151) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.11 (#162) | 0.21 (#155) |
| RPI | 0.505 (#166) | 0.531 (#121) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MUR | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 29.4% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 17.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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