Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | MUR -150 MOST +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MOST +25 | 95 | Lost |
| Massey | MUR -0.8 (-25.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.8 (-45.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MOST -0.3 (-24.7) | 140.5 (-45.5) | 49% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -0.1 (-25.1) | 138.6 (-43.6) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -0.1 (-25.1) | 141.8 (-46.8) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MOST -0.1 (-24.9) | 142.4 (-47.4) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2025 | MOST 77 – 56 MUR |
| Feb 15, 2024 | MUR 82 – 72 MOST |
| Jan 11, 2024 | MUR 77 – 53 MOST |
| Feb 22, 2023 | MOST 84 – 69 MUR |
| Jan 28, 2023 | MUR 74 – 71 MOST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MUR | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 8-12 |
| Home | 8-8 | 9-5 |
| Away | 4-9 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.1 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 1.4 (#147) | 0.6 (#159) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.32 (#207) | 0.29 (#143) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.08 (#158) | 0.36 (#144) |
| RPI | 0.489 (#200) | 0.501 (#175) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MUR | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 39.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.6% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 13.0% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 75.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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