Betting Lines
| Spread | MOST -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | MOST -250 MUR +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MOST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MOST +15 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | MOST -7.4 (+7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.4 (+19.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MOST -4.5 (+10.5) | 134.9 (+18.1) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MOST -6.1 (+8.9) | 132.8 (+20.2) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MOST -4.0 (+11.0) | 136.6 (+16.4) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MOST -4.6 (+10.4) | 136.1 (+16.9) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2025 | MOST 77 – 56 MUR |
| Mar 7, 2024 | MOST 60 – 35 MUR |
| Feb 15, 2024 | MUR 82 – 72 MOST |
| Jan 11, 2024 | MUR 77 – 53 MOST |
| Jan 28, 2023 | MUR 74 – 71 MOST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MOST | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 11-9 |
| Home | 10-4 | 11-2 |
| Away | 5-8 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.0 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.7 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 0.5 (#157) | -3.4 (#223) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.06 (#167) | 0.16 (#157) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.06 (#176) | -0.04 (#174) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#138) | 0.506 (#169) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MOST | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 17.5% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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