Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | MOST +135 MUR -155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MOST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MOST +21 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | MUR -2.7 (+23.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.6 (-7.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -1.8 (+22.8) | 139.0 (-6.0) | 41% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -1.6 (+22.6) | 135.6 (-2.6) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -2.3 (+23.3) | 139.1 (-6.1) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -2.2 (+23.2) | 140.4 (-7.4) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2024 | MOST 60 – 35 MUR |
| Feb 15, 2024 | MUR 82 – 72 MOST |
| Jan 11, 2024 | MUR 77 – 53 MOST |
| Feb 22, 2023 | MOST 84 – 69 MUR |
| Jan 28, 2023 | MUR 74 – 71 MOST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MOST | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 9-11 |
| Home | 7-8 | 8-5 |
| Away | 1-12 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.5 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 70.2 |
| Massey | -4.9 (#245) | 1.0 (#143) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.33 (#283) | 0.18 (#159) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.29 (#259) | 0.25 (#150) |
| RPI | 0.435 (#293) | 0.520 (#144) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MOST | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 30.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.4% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.3% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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