Betting Lines
| Spread | TLSA -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | TLSA -188 RICE +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TLSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TLSA +11 | 175 | Won |
| Massey | TLSA -5.2 (+5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.0 (+28.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TLSA -4.2 (+6.8) | 147.1 (+27.9) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TLSA -2.9 (+8.1) | 146.6 (+28.4) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TLSA -3.9 (+7.1) | 144.5 (+30.5) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TLSA -3.8 (+7.2) | 145.4 (+29.6) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | TLSA 87 – 81 RICE |
| Dec 31, 2025 | TLSA 97 – 48 RICE |
| Feb 22, 2025 | RICE 71 – 50 TLSA |
| Jan 1, 2025 | RICE 70 – 64 TLSA |
| Jan 28, 2024 | TLSA 85 – 83 RICE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TLSA | RICE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 5-13 |
| Home | 14-4 | 6-10 |
| Away | 2-9 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.3 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 76.3 |
| Massey | -1.5 (#187) | -3.4 (#224) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.33 (#202) | -0.68 (#243) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.41 (#207) | -0.84 (#243) |
| RPI | 0.467 (#238) | 0.488 (#195) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TLSA | RICE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 29.6% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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