Betting Lines
| Spread | TLSA -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | RICE +350 TLSA -455 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RICE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TLSA +6 | 168 | Lost |
| Massey | TLSA -14.6 (+8.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.9 (+11.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TLSA -12.5 (+6.5) | 147.5 (+20.5) | 17% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TLSA -11.3 (+5.3) | 147.6 (+20.4) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TLSA -12.6 (+6.6) | 148.4 (+19.6) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TLSA -12.0 (+6.0) | 149.7 (+18.3) | 18% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | TLSA 97 – 48 RICE |
| Feb 22, 2025 | RICE 71 – 50 TLSA |
| Jan 1, 2025 | RICE 70 – 64 TLSA |
| Feb 17, 2024 | TLSA 93 – 82 RICE |
| Jan 28, 2024 | TLSA 85 – 83 RICE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RICE | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 30-8 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 13-5 |
| Home | 8-8 | 16-2 |
| Away | 4-9 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 83.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -6.1 (#260) | 11.7 (#48) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.93 (#254) | 1.57 (#65) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.32 (#257) | 1.92 (#71) |
| RPI | 0.443 (#279) | 0.578 (#54) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RICE | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 48.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 40.8% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 57.7% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 35.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 65.0% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.4% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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