Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | MIA +225 DUKE -300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +29 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | DUKE -3.9 (-25.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.9 (-13.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -2.5 (-26.5) | 147.9 (-8.9) | 38% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -2.6 (-26.4) | 145.3 (-6.3) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -2.7 (-26.3) | 147.3 (-8.3) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -2.1 (-26.9) | 146.8 (-7.8) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2025 | DUKE 97 – 60 MIA |
| Jan 15, 2025 | DUKE 89 – 54 MIA |
| Mar 11, 2023 | DUKE 85 – 78 MIA |
| Feb 7, 2023 | MIA 81 – 59 DUKE |
| Jan 21, 2023 | DUKE 68 – 66 MIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 15-5 |
| Home | 11-6 | 15-3 |
| Away | 2-9 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L10 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 78.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 66.3 |
| Massey | 8.9 (#65) | 16.2 (#14) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.26 (#82) | 2.48 (#17) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.62 (#79) | 3.19 (#14) |
| RPI | 0.533 (#120) | 0.605 (#24) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 48.0% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 37.6% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.6% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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