Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | DUKE -250 MIA +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +2 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -6.1 (-4.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.1 (-12.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -5.4 (-3.4) | 144.7 (-10.7) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -6.1 (-4.1) | 144.7 (-10.7) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -5.1 (-3.1) | 146.8 (-12.8) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -5.1 (-3.1) | 147.5 (-13.5) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2025 | DUKE 97 – 60 MIA |
| Jan 15, 2025 | DUKE 89 – 54 MIA |
| Feb 22, 2024 | DUKE 84 – 55 MIA |
| Mar 11, 2023 | DUKE 85 – 78 MIA |
| Feb 7, 2023 | MIA 81 – 59 DUKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 29-8 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 15-5 |
| Home | 16-0 | 16-1 |
| Away | 4-6 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 79.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 11.3 (#32) | 9.0 (#59) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.36 (#25) | 2.58 (#16) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.94 (#25) | 2.95 (#24) |
| RPI | 0.622 (#15) | 0.615 (#20) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.7 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 38.8% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 18.4% |
Game Analysis
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