Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | MIA -188 DUKE +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +22 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | MIA -1.5 (+20.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.7 (-4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -1.8 (+20.2) | 143.0 (-3.0) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -1.9 (+20.1) | 141.4 (-1.4) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -2.7 (+19.3) | 144.2 (-4.2) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -2.3 (+19.7) | 144.1 (-4.1) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2025 | DUKE 97 – 60 MIA |
| Jan 15, 2025 | DUKE 89 – 54 MIA |
| Feb 22, 2024 | DUKE 84 – 55 MIA |
| Mar 11, 2023 | DUKE 85 – 78 MIA |
| Jan 21, 2023 | DUKE 68 – 66 MIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 14-6 |
| Home | 16-1 | 16-0 |
| Away | 7-4 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 7-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.1 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 63.6 |
| Massey | 10.3 (#44) | 12.4 (#29) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.45 (#20) | 2.39 (#21) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.91 (#21) | 2.82 (#26) |
| RPI | 0.612 (#21) | 0.621 (#17) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.7% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 38.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 17.7% |
Game Analysis
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