Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Over |
| Money | MIA +130 DUKE -155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +7 | 163 | Lost |
| Massey | DUKE -2.3 (-4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.7 (+19.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -1.6 (-5.4) | 142.1 (+20.9) | 40% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -1.9 (-5.1) | 141.5 (+21.5) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -2.8 (-4.2) | 145.2 (+17.8) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -3.1 (-3.9) | 144.0 (+19.0) | 36% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2025 | DUKE 97 – 60 MIA |
| Jan 15, 2025 | DUKE 89 – 54 MIA |
| Feb 22, 2024 | DUKE 84 – 55 MIA |
| Feb 7, 2023 | MIA 81 – 59 DUKE |
| Jan 21, 2023 | DUKE 68 – 66 MIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 14-6 |
| Home | 16-1 | 16-0 |
| Away | 7-4 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 7-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.1 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 63.6 |
| Massey | 10.1 (#46) | 12.5 (#27) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.54 (#16) | 2.52 (#17) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.22 (#12) | 2.98 (#18) |
| RPI | 0.603 (#17) | 0.607 (#14) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.6% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 36.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 46.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.3% | 18.2% |
Game Analysis
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