Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -22.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | DUKE -20000 MIA +3000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +35 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -28.9 (+6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.9 (-6.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -25.7 (+9.3) | 145.2 (-2.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -20.6 (+14.4) | 147.0 (-4.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -21.2 (+13.8) | 148.2 (-5.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -23.3 (+11.7) | 149.9 (-6.9) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2025 | DUKE 97 – 60 MIA |
| Feb 22, 2024 | DUKE 84 – 55 MIA |
| Mar 11, 2023 | DUKE 85 – 78 MIA |
| Feb 7, 2023 | MIA 81 – 59 DUKE |
| Jan 21, 2023 | DUKE 68 – 66 MIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35-4 | 7-24 |
| Conference | 19-1 | 3-17 |
| Home | 17-0 | 7-10 |
| Away | 10-1 | 0-10 |
| Neutral | 8-3 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.2 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.8 | 80.6 |
| Massey | 25.9 (#2) | 0.8 (#149) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.09 (#6) | -1.64 (#309) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.56 (#5) | -1.62 (#286) |
| RPI | 0.668 (#8) | 0.432 (#295) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.65 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.5% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 34.4% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.5% | 55.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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