Betting Lines
| Spread | WAKE -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | ND +225 WAKE -300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +5 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | WAKE -8.4 (+13.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.4 (-0.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAKE -6.5 (+11.5) | 136.4 (-1.4) | 30% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAKE -7.2 (+12.2) | 136.5 (-1.5) | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAKE -7.1 (+12.1) | 135.2 (-0.2) | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WAKE -6.5 (+11.5) | 136.8 (-1.8) | 29% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2025 | WAKE 74 – 71 ND |
| Mar 13, 2024 | WAKE 72 – 59 ND |
| Feb 26, 2023 | WAKE 66 – 58 ND |
| Feb 4, 2023 | WAKE 81 – 64 ND |
| Feb 19, 2022 | WAKE 79 – 74 ND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 11-9 |
| Home | 9-8 | 17-2 |
| Away | 2-10 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.0 | 78.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 2.1 (#134) | 13.9 (#22) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.04 (#165) | 1.85 (#48) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.17 (#158) | 2.41 (#37) |
| RPI | 0.482 (#208) | 0.572 (#60) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 37.7% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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