Betting Lines
| Spread | WAKE -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | ND +125 WAKE -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAKE +17 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | WAKE -3.9 (-13.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.9 (-6.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAKE -4.0 (-13.0) | 152.8 (-7.8) | 32% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAKE -3.5 (-13.5) | 147.4 (-2.4) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAKE -3.7 (-13.3) | 150.3 (-5.3) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WAKE -4.1 (-12.9) | 152.4 (-7.4) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2025 | WAKE 74 – 71 ND |
| Mar 13, 2024 | WAKE 72 – 59 ND |
| Feb 28, 2024 | ND 70 – 65 WAKE |
| Feb 26, 2023 | WAKE 66 – 58 ND |
| Feb 19, 2022 | WAKE 79 – 74 ND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 10-10 |
| Home | 11-8 | 13-3 |
| Away | 0-10 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 73.8 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#180) | 6.8 (#81) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.20 (#191) | 1.49 (#64) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.12 (#183) | 2.00 (#58) |
| RPI | 0.480 (#218) | 0.560 (#76) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 30.9 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 6.7 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 14.0% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 20.4% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 17.8% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.7% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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