Betting Lines
| Spread | WAKE -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | WAKE -500 ND +333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAKE +13 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | WAKE -9.9 (+3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.5 (-4.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAKE -7.9 (+5.1) | 137.5 (-6.5) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAKE -7.6 (+5.4) | 137.4 (-6.4) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAKE -8.3 (+4.7) | 136.9 (-5.9) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WAKE -7.9 (+5.1) | 137.7 (-6.7) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2025 | WAKE 74 – 71 ND |
| Feb 28, 2024 | ND 70 – 65 WAKE |
| Feb 26, 2023 | WAKE 66 – 58 ND |
| Feb 4, 2023 | WAKE 81 – 64 ND |
| Feb 19, 2022 | WAKE 79 – 74 ND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAKE | ND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 7-13 |
| Home | 17-2 | 9-8 |
| Away | 2-9 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.1 | 64.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 12.8 (#30) | 2.9 (#125) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.59 (#61) | 0.46 (#129) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.25 (#46) | 0.64 (#126) |
| RPI | 0.549 (#90) | 0.497 (#182) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAKE | ND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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