Betting Lines
| Spread | WAKE -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAKE +5 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | WAKE -6.4 (-1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.8 (+10.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAKE -5.5 (-0.5) | 143.8 (+9.2) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAKE -4.0 (+1.0) | 144.8 (+8.2) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAKE -6.5 (-1.5) | 144.5 (+8.5) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WAKE -5.9 (-0.9) | 144.6 (+8.4) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2025 | WAKE 74 – 71 ND |
| Mar 13, 2024 | WAKE 72 – 59 ND |
| Feb 28, 2024 | ND 70 – 65 WAKE |
| Feb 26, 2023 | WAKE 66 – 58 ND |
| Feb 4, 2023 | WAKE 81 – 64 ND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAKE | ND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 15-5 |
| Home | 18-2 | 14-1 |
| Away | 5-6 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.5 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 11.7 (#34) | 8.2 (#64) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.89 (#49) | 1.92 (#44) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.36 (#48) | 2.23 (#52) |
| RPI | 0.549 (#83) | 0.589 (#43) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAKE | ND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.2% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 22.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 76.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 15.5% |
Game Analysis
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